..another example why Buy and Hold for longer does not work even...

..another example why Buy and Hold for longer does not work even for a fairly reasonable stock.

..Costa Group what's not to like being a food business.

..but anyone who bought on 3 Aug 2015 and wise enough to sell at the peak on 1 Jun 2018 , just less than 3 years would have pocketed a handsome 422%. Amazing return over 3 years. Buy and Hold that uptrend until the uptrend starts to fail.

..how long is Buy and Hold...I mean if 400% over 3 years isn't good enough, then how long more...so you'd think another 3 years would get you another 400%? How long is long enough?

..and so you hold another 4 years from that peak, and you would have given back 63% from that peak, and your 422% return over 3 years would now fetch you just 56% over 7 years!

..and yet we are all taught to Buy and Hold. Costa Group is not any specky stock by any measure, it is well respected even amongst analysts.
But businesses do go wrong. Many in fact. Including reasonably good ones. And many more waiting to do likewise.

..this is why I don't buy to invest long term...I respect big gains enough and I probably won't ever make life changing gains, but that is ok. I'd rather buy into sectoral rallies with exuberance when both micro and macro justifies exposure and exit before it is over. Let others buy the bottom and others sell into the peak. Participating in that 70-80% between range is a safer play but only when the coast is clear and uncertainty is low. There will be times like that, not to worry, we had that in mid 2017-early 2018 with the tech boom and mid 2020-early 2021 with both gold and lithium and resources in general. Lock em in , take a break and prepare for next opportunity. As I said before, continuously staying in the market would only mean subjecting oneself to eventual downdraft that would undo all prior good performance outcomes. We have to learn it the hard way, but learn we must.

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