Its Over, page-13730

Are we watching the cheerleader not the player?

"unless and until the Fed pivots"

Data and history shows consistently that the Fed and other central banks lag the market and react to and take the credit for moves already in train due to a very complex market. This re-inforces moves underway but does not pull powerful levers as we have been trained to think.

Volker followed hesitantly rather than led in "taming" the great inflation. But a myth arose from that period that has proved very useful to give weight to Fed-speak.

So any upcoming pivot may well be the market pivoting not Mr Powell. That may give us an earlier signal than the ones that make the headlines.