Data and history shows consistently that the Fed and other central banks lag the market and react to and take the credit for moves already in train due to a very complex market. This re-inforces moves underway but does not pull powerful levers as we have been trained to think.
Volker followed hesitantly rather than led in "taming" the great inflation. But a myth arose from that period that has proved very useful to give weight to Fed-speak.
So any upcoming pivot may well be the market pivoting not Mr Powell. That may give us an earlier signal than the ones that make the headlines.
