Powell will likely pivot later than the market, and Oil will be the single factor that can make our predictions about peak inflation more murky than consensus.
The reason why Powell will pivot later is because inflation will stay stubbornly higher for longer and once Powell lowers rates, its credibility will be shot if he U-turns to raise it again, so he must likely want to see inflation drop lower before he pivots. The only problem is that it can stay high and then suddenly drop in a sharper way once unemployment moves higher. But until employment caves in, the Fed and RBA momentum to raise rates will continue.
