"Oil is high is because of geopolitics, and that is a variable difficult to predict."
Nope it's because of under-investment in oil and gas projects over the last 10 years because of ESG governance whilst demand continues to grow, creating a supply/demand imbalance causing prices to rise.
An example of ESG governance
A chart to prove fossil fuel demand is continuing to increase. [Source: EIA - International Energy Outlook 2021)