What if this is the end of the bear market but not the start of a bull market?
Is that statement hard to reconcile?
End of the bear market suggests that we may not revisit the recent lows again or if it does, it won't be any worse. If measured by indices, the top 7 US mega stocks with strong moat could continue to perform well to hold up those indices. Some overbeaten stocks could mean revert to the centre even while indices meander around a trading zone of 3800-4500.
Not the start of a bull market suggests that the macro picture is not all that conducive with inflation still a problem and a mild recession remains a good prospect while the Fed is still in tightening mode, so markets may not be able to climb relentlessly.
That could well reflect a muddy picture for stocks in general but at the same time become a stock pickers market as selective stocks can still do very well despite what is happening at the indices level.
This view above is not even an opinion, it is merely posturing a What If scenario, that we should have an open mind to.
And it does come down to Oil, as I said many times. A rising oil price would put this prospect out of contention.
