Its Over, page-14709

	Column 1
0	Column 1 0 Where are the suckers?Big boys volatility (bond and FX) have exploded to the upside, but we still haven't heard much about blow ups. Risk managers are probably still busy trying to figure out the true risks in portfolios as adjusting Greeks to mark to market isn't done overnight... Refinitiv

Column 1

0

Good luck FedNothing new really, but worth a reminder. Latest from Albert Edwards: "The bottom line is, after decades of central bank stimulus inflating bubbles and financial leverage to grotesque heights, the markets are still in charge and they just won’t tolerate QT. I keep citing Mike Tyson’s famous quote, “everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face”. Which reminds me, isn’t the Fed in the process of doubling its QT to $96bn a month? Good luck with that!"

	Column 1
0	Remember 2008 seasonalityCan perfection continue? Guess "they" have to break something big in order for this one to continue from here...(chart in %) Refinitiv

	Column 1
0	and then you have the autumn seasonalityThe 2008 analogy chart has been following the pattern well, but what if "normal" seasonality decides kicking in? Equity Clock

	Column 1
0	VIX - green shoots?Note that the VIX has managed to "outperform" the SPX slightly over the past sessions. At this stage it says nothing more than that VIX is about "pace and not direction", but watch this closely should the gap get bigger. Refinitiv

Column 1

0

How low can we go?"Today's set of data may be having the effect of jolting investors back to the reality of the negative asymmetry that risk assets face as central banks look to rein in inflation by clamping down on growth -- keeping us firmly in an environment dominated by the FCI loop, rather than a central bank put. Our base case remains that the US will achieve a soft landing, but if the Fed pushes the economy into recession, Wilson writes that there could still be significant downside to both short-dated bonds and equities here. How low can we go? The S&P 500 is trading close to our revised year-end 2022 target of 3600, but a recession that also weighs on S&P 500 EPS could cause the index to decline to 3150, putting upcoming earnings into focus" (Goldman Sachs)

[/table]