2022 has so far experienced 5 bear market rallies and possibly the 6th which is ongoing ranging from 4 days to 61 days and the current one 29 days so far. Each time it ends, a larger downdraft follows which wipe out the gains and more.
If the current one ends at 4100, that takes the bear rally to about 14.6%.
And you know what? The decline since 27 Jan has just been -8.5% and as of last night, the S&P500 is just -7.74% lower than it was on 26 Feb 22, the date Russia invaded Ukraine.
Does that adequately reflect all the troubles that economies and companies are facing?
For those who argue that markets look ahead, I agree except that everything that is ahead does not look positive for an environment that is conducive for business; instead what consensus seem to agree is that earnings outlook in 2023 will be negative or if not, less positive than what we've seen so far. And the war against inflation is far from over, even with a single month of slightly lower inflation posted.
1 year view
S&P 500 Index Chart — SPX Quote — TradingView | Column 1 | Column 2 | Column 3 | Column 4 | Column 5 | Column 6 | Column 7 |
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| 1 | BEAR MARKET RALLIES | | | | | | |
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| 2 | | | | | | | |
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| 3 | Start | Ends | Duration (days) | Start | Ends | % Gain | Loss% followed |
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| 4 | 27-Jan-22 | 2-Feb-22 | 6 | 4326 | 4589 | 6.08% | -9.07% |
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| 5 | 14-Mar-22 | 29-Mar-22 | 15 | 4173 | 4631 | 10.98% | -15.76% |
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| 6 | 20-May-22 | 2-Jun-22 | 13 | 3901 | 4176 | 7.05% | -12.21% |
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| 7 | 16-Jun | 16-Aug-22 | 61 | 3666 | 4305 | 17.43% | -16.72% |
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| 8 | 30-Sep-22 | 4-Oct-22 | 4 | 3585 | 3790 | 5.72% | -5.62% |
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| 9 | 12-Oct-22 | 10-Nov-22 | 29 | 3577 | 3956 | 10.60% | |
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