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PaddyMac33

274 Posts.

33

07/12/22

11:00

Post #: 65193114
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Originally posted by 1ronnie: ↑

...I may have got my call on Oil too early but I always knew a high oil price could never sustain. Sure it could return higher in the near future but if it does, it would lead to a severe recession now that it is almost a certainty that one (recession) is already underway.

...Demand destruction/ deflation narrative is never good for commodities. Yes, some (copper, lithium) may be in supply deficit but IMO demand destruction narrative is more powerful. I kept saying this: the paper market carries more weight than the physical market- commodity traders move markets and you can expect the deflation narrative to steal the focus over supply deficits over the coming months. You can be short on the commodity but if you are short of demand, the supply gap is not even that much relevant.

This chart below sends a clear and present warning, a warning I gave you back in April this year, 2 months too early but nonetheless not wrong.

And the BHPs, WDS all sitting at lofty levels...because holders want their dividend cheques.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index fell for a 3rd day hitting its lowest since February...

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When he tweeted in Jan 2022, Crude Oil was $85.

It got up to $120 in March and June.

Is this guy an oil pessimist?
1 Upvote

1 Great analysis

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