Disinflationary forces are definitely at work but some powerful counters to this also apply.
At my work as long term supply contracts end, we are facing 30% plus price jumps for some supplies. Lag effects of the recent past are only just showing up.
Suppliers are also no longer happy to lock in to CPI based escalation price clauses as was normal for decades. Quotes and tenders have significant inflation buffers built in. Under quoting is now high risk.
2% inflation is a long way off unless we get a major recession or liquidity crisis.
