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Since your post.CSL: $233 to $304 (up 30%)CBA: $98 to $116 (up...

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PaddyMac33

257 Posts.

33

09/02/24

11:39

Post #: 72321859

Originally posted by 1ronnie: ↑
If you don't believe that Buy and Hold is over-rated, history has already shown this to be the case.

Some believe that it does not matter when you buy, it is what you buy. They think just buy BHP or CBA anytime if you have time, i.e not nearing retirement yet, it is all good. So let us see what has transpired so far.

Well, if you had bought BHP at its 2005 peak, 11 years later, you'd still be -11.5% down on capital, but you make up through dividends. I always felt that $50 BHP was the peak, and we're -11% down so far and a lot more catch up on the downside.

CSL is already down -30% in just over the past 8 months. Had you bought and held from its peak in Aug 2018, 5 years later you are only 2.5% up plus dividends. Gone nowhere!

CBA has been one of the best large cap stocks and you can compare that to atrocious WBC. Bank stocks hit a peak on 2 March 2015 and since then despite all the big profits, shareholders only gained largely on dividends. CBA is up only 6.3% since then and that is 13+ years, and WBC is a whopping -46% lower after 13 years! And they're not even businesses that do not report strong profits.

Likewise TLS (Telstra) holders like it for dividends. So dividends you get, 8 years from its July 2015 peak, it is still -41% down, and they have had many CEOs since then. Left pocket (capital) to the right pocket (dividend).

Well favoured ALL and REA are two stocks that showed some longer term strength, yet ALL recorded 22% gain from its peak 5 years ago, 4% pa not great. REA 36% over 3 years, that's better.

FPH and RHC are well regarded healthcare stocks but look at how well or rather how badly their stocks performed since they lost their darling status. Their premium contracted once they lost their darling status. FPH down -9.5% from its peak 4 years ago and RHC -40% below its all time high 7 years ago. Continue holding them thinking they still make money so their value would get better does not resonate.

Even staple and recession proof WOW isn't all it is cut out to be. 2 years from its Aug 21 high, it remains -13% down. And 9 years from its 2014 peak, just 25% higher. Thats 2.7% per annum.

WDS makes bonanza profits from high oil price but it is just 1.4% higher than where it was pre-Covid in Jan 20. And still well below its $65 peak price in 2008 or -44% below. Oil stocks no longer seen in the same light as years ago because of the global economy's transition away from fossil fuels. Similarly WHC goes through cyclicality and showed that it is not a Buy and Hold candidate for long. Just 7% higher from its Jan 2011 peak, some 12 years ago. And it suffered a crash from Jun2018 to Aug 2020 by -83%, and a business saved by the energy crisis sparked by the Ukraine war.

Finally, DMP shows us why it is a folly not to sell at the peak when you have it. People say that it is easy to say in hindsight, but give me a break, when DMP hit $160, they let their greed get the better of them. DMP peaked in Aug 2016 at $75 then fell badly but given another chance to exit again at the next peak at $162 in Sep 2021, 5 years later, if holders never believe in selling and continue holding forever, they are now back to $51, a -32% loss when they could have booked a 200+% gain!

Bottom Line: It is Not Just What You Buy, It is When You Buy. But most importantly, When You Sell. And if You Don't Ever Sell, don't think you can be Warren Buffett because history has shown that holding even the best businesses for longer is not as lucrative or profitable as it is made out to be. And these stock performance is based on market conditions the past 5-10 years, do you expect the next 5-10 years to be better than what we've had the previous 5-10 years? I think not. If you do not agree with that, I'd suggest you get more involved studying macro conditions and stock valuations in the current economic and market environment.

Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4
1 1st Feb 2005 1st Feb 2016 Chg%
2 BHP $ 15.44 $ 13.67 -11.5%
3 1st Oct 2007 20-Oct-23
4 $ 37.19 $ 44.43 19.5%
5 20-Jan-23 20-Oct-23
6 $ 49.95 $ 44.43 -11.1%
7 17-Feb-23 20-Oct-23 Chg%
8 CSL $ 336.40 $ 233.09 -30.7%
9 1-Aug-18 20-Oct-23
10 $ 227.31 $ 233.09 2.5%
11 1-Oct-07 20-Oct-23 Chg%
12 CBA $ 109.71 $ 98.75 -10.0%
13 2-Mar-15 20-Oct-23
14 $ 92.91 $ 98.75 6.3%
15 1-Oct-07 20-Oct-23 Chg%
16 WBC $ 30.29 $ 20.86 -31.1%
17 2-Mar-15 20-Oct-23
18 $ 39.06 $ 20.86 -46.6%
19 26-Jul-21 20-Oct-23 Chg%
20 RIO $ 133.42 $ 114.62 -14.1%
21 1-Nov-07 20-Oct-23
22 $ 114.52 $ 112.62 -1.7%
23 13-Jan-20 20-Oct-23 Chg%
24 TLS $ 3.90 $ 3.81 -2.3%
25 1-Jul-15 20-Oct-23
26 $ 6.49 $ 3.81 -41.3%
27 17-Feb-20 20-Oct-23 Chg%
28 ALL $ 37.28 $ 39.08 4.8%
29 2-Jul-18 20-Oct-23
30 $ 32.07 $ 39.08 21.9%
31 1-Jun-21 20-Oct-23 Chg%
32 REA $ 169.03 $ 155.27 -8.1%
33 2-Jan-20 20-Oct-23
34 $ 114.10 $ 155.27 36.1%
35 24-Aug-20 20-Oct-23 Chg%
36 FPH $ 34.27 $ 18.94 -44.7%
37 1-Nov-19 20-Oct-23
38 $ 20.93 $ 18.94 -9.5%
39 17-Feb-20 20-Oct-23 Chg%
40 QBE $ 15.19 $ 15.61 2.8%
41 1-Aug-07 20-Oct-23
42 $ 34.85 $ 18.94 -45.7%
43 10-Feb-20 20-Oct-23 Chg%
44 RHC $ 79.75 $ 49.58 -37.8%
45 1-Aug-16 20-Oct-23
46 $ 82.97 $ 49.58 -40.2%
47 16-Aug-21 20-Oct-23 Chg%
48 WOW $ 41.99 $ 36.55 -13.0%
49 1-May-14 20-Oct-23
50 $ 29.27 $ 36.55 24.9%
51 15-Nov-21 20-Oct-23 Chg%
52 MQG $ 208.00 $ 161.59 -22.3%
53 17-Feb-20 20-Oct-23
54 $ 151.34 $ 161.59 6.8%
55 6-Jan-20 20-Oct-23 Chg%
56 WDS $ 35.86 $ 36.36 1.4%
57 2-Jun-08 20-Oct-23
58 $ 65.15 $ 36.36 -44.2%
59 4-Jan-11 20-Oct-23 Chg%
60 WHC $ 7.04 $ 7.54 7.1%
61 1-Jun-18 3-Aug-20
62 $ 5.78 $ 0.93 -83.9%
63 1-Nov-22 20-Oct-23
64 $ 10.04 $ 7.54 -24.9%
65 6-Sep-21 20-Oct-23 Chg%
66 DMP $ 161.98 $ 51.41 -68.3%
67 1-Aug-16 20-Oct-23
68 $ 75.69 $ 51.41 -32.1%
Expand
Since your post.

CSL: $233 to $304 (up 30%)

CBA: $98 to $116 (up 18%)

WBC: $21 to $24 (up 14%)

RIO: $114 to $130 (up 14%)

TLS: $3.80 to $4.00 (up 5%)

ALL: $39 to $44 (up 13%)

REA: $155 to $180 (up 16%)

FPH: $19 to $23 (up 21%)

QBE: $15.60 to $16.45 (up 5%)

RHC: $49.60 to $50.90 (up 2.6%)

WOW: $36.55 to $35.59 (down 2.7%)

MQG: $161 to $191 (up 19%)

WDS: $36 to $32 (down 12%)

WHC: $7.54 to $7.64 (up 1.3%)

DMP: $51.41 to $39.70(down 23%)

2 Great analysis

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