Its Over, page-20413

Investing in an index fund would IMO be good if you buy them when the market is low, because index fund buyers are generally Buy and Hold.

If you buy now you have to be believing that the current market bull rally can continue well into the mid 2020s and taking on the mindset that if you have time, invest for the long term.

Its not handy for me now to show you periods of time in the market on a chart when it went nowhere for many years, even a decade.

But if we want to profit from this short term mania, I have put in a modest amount into FANG (ASX ticker) which is comprised of mega tech stocks including 16% NVIDIA, something I am prepared to lose 30-50% with a prospective short term gain of 20-30% (at best). It is a small hedge that I could be wrong, that this mega tech rally can continue on. But I won't be holding for long. But if the crash comes before I can liquidate, it is only a small amount to lose when I am largely on cash holding.

The current equity risk premium is at or below the risk free return of US money market fund. Risk reward isn't good but the market bull is intoxicated pays no attention except a self-absorbing attitude of chasing heights.