....the market has got the Fed pivot so wrong as much as pundits...

....the market has got the Fed pivot so wrong as much as pundits forecasting recession. We started off this year or end of last with projections for 6 rate cuts, now its down to at best 3 and I am also hearing 1-2 and even a couple at 0.

....The Fed is unlikely to pivot early with financial conditions loosening so much with equity markets going a lot higher (than they had expected).

....it is plausible that the Fed would only see urgency to pivot WHEN they see the wheels falling off, which is why we have had many historical precedents that when the Fed pivots, that's precisely when US recessions take hold.  

...so ironically the Fed pivot which the market so much looks forward to is probably the wish they would wish they wouldn't get.

...RBA decision today and we should expect a hold, while the key thing to watch today is if BoJ finally pick up guts to raise for first time (in 17 years?) to end NIRP (negative interest rate policy).  

Crossing now ... *FED SWAPS PRICE IN LESS THAN 50% ODDS OF JUNE RATE CUT

https://x.com/biancoresearch/status/1769757950753587492?s=20