When I point out that everything, including gold, is stretched too far above the mean and at risk of a profit taking event it's no surprise there will always be a number of people that will completely ignore everything I'm pointing out and aggressively inform me that "this time is different".
Invariably these are the people that couldn't, wouldn't, or didn't buy at the bottom when I was trying to get people to pull the trigger. They waited and waited until they were confident the trend was firmly up.** Which means they bought very late in the rally. Understandably these people don't want to hear that gold might correct. If it does their trades will go negative. So they stick their head in the sand and ignore the warning signs. We bought aggressively and with leverage on March 1. We finally sold the last of our trading positions on Thursday. We could literally be done trading for the year and still have one of the best years ever at this point. This is what I mean by controlling greed.
We've made an insane amount of money in a very short time. It doesn't make sense to keep pressing and pressing until we get caught in an intermediate degree profit taking event and give back a big chunk of those huge profits.
And, we have our insurance just in case this does turn into a final blow off bubble phase with no corrections. We always have most of our metals capital in physical gold and silver. This we never trade.We will hold these positions until we are well into bubble mania when every Tom, Dick and Jane buying precious metals.
So the bottom line is that we can't "miss" anything. Our physical protects against that. But we can be aggressive when metals are at or near a larger cycle bottom, and we can be risk averse or on the sidelines when we've made a shit ton of money and we don't want to risk getting caught in a larger degree profit taking event that would put a serious dent in those beautiful profits. It's not easy to do but one can learn how to buy at bottoms when you are scared, and sell at tops when you are giddy. That doesn't mean you will time perfect entries and perfect exits, but you really don't have to to make outstanding gains in a strong bull market. You just have to get "close enough".
** yes, I was one of those that didn't buy when it was under $2k (gold stocks I mean).
But read closely what Gary is saying.
He thinks Gold and he didn't mention it but implied, gold stocks, are due for a possible correction.
That is plausible, yes. But read the part in BOLD, he will continue to hold physical Gold and that is his insurance, he won't sell it and that is his insurance if he is wrong (about Gold correction). He also would not trade it.
When this thread is positive about Gold, I have on many occasions qualified that that does not mean I am bullish on gold stocks. On the contrary, I have cautioned so many times that when Wall St crashes, gold stocks crash harder, they are equities not safe haven Gold that you think it is. And I have also written a post on why the disconnect between Gold and gold stocks (see my post yesterday- Its Over, 73439579, page-21398 | HotCopper Forum)
It is likely that if Wall St completes its correction next week, gold stocks could face headwinds even if Gold continues to hover at the current level or go even higher.
The safer route to invest in Gold if one can't get physical, is Gold ETF, and I continue to favour AUD Gold ETFs (e.g PMGOLD/ GOLD), because in adverse times, AUD goes lower and Gold heads higher, giving a double whammy effect to the upside. But just also to note too, that if Risk on is back and AUD heads higher while Gold drops, you get the double whammy to the downside. That said, exposure to AUD Gold is simply a longer term hedge against loss of AUD purchasing power and the fall in fiat against Gold. And any Gold exposure is anyway a hedge against bad things happening.
