...you can't help noticing that every past US recession is preceded by a period of Fed rate flatlining at an elevated point. And when the Fed finally pivots/cuts, it coincided or followed by the onset of recession.
...that's exactly Where We're At now. A few more months* of staying Higher for Longer, then the rate cut would arrive. But its not likely the soft landing that the markets are hopeful for.
...the economy could turn sharply lower quickly when the C i.e consumption plummets and the I i.e investments shrink , the G is the ace factor that can prop the economy but congressional stalemates could constrain it while exports are facing geopolitical headwinds ahead.
* a few months can be as short as 4 months to as long as 7 months
