The ratio of the Conference Board Leading Employment Index and nonfarm payrolls has historically been a great Business Cycle indicator. In April, the ratio declined further, continuing to signal a labor picture that is slowing more than the headline coincident data like nonfarm payrolls implies.
https://x.com/EPBResearch/status/1789262149467939267
..this is predicting a decline in employment and the trend is not good.
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