S&P500 could easily retrace almost -16% to circa 4,500 while keeping its uptrend trajectory (from Covid lows) intact.
Oct low support at 4117 could be a stop, that would take the S&P500 down by -23%
If it retraces half of its gain since the Covid lows of 2304, S&P500 could well go to 3829 for a -28% decline.
...but these does not mean the S&P500 can't run higher in the short term.
...and the longer it does not want to undergo a meaningful correction of 5-10%, the bigger the bubble gets to a point (at the peak of the rally) that a bigger crash or train wreck becomes more imminently probable.
....now the US economy is showing signs of weakness, it won't be long that weakness is reflected in a broader decline in corporate earnings. When we get to that point, the market narrative will change quite dramatically from 'soft landing' to earnings recession.
