Its Over, page-22325

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    Goldman: S&P 500 path and valuation matrix:
    S&P 500 baseline forecast and four alternative scenarios
    “Catch up,” the S&P 500 would end the year at 5900 (+9% from today)
    • “Catch-down,” the S&P 500 would fall to 4700 (-13%)
    • Continued mega-cap exceptionalism would lift the index to 6300 (+16%)
    • Recession fears would push the index down to 4800 (-12%)

    ...well, choose your pathway

    ...if it is 'Catch-up' then marginal gain/recovery
    ...if it is 'Mega-cap exceptionalism' it won't matter because only the mega techs would do well
    Otherwise
    ...We have downside

    So either which way, there's not a good reason from a risk:reward perspective to be in the market.

    ....I know many are grappling with a difficult decision to make, because on the one hand, we could have further downside (so worry about further losses) but on the other, the market could still go higher and hope for some recovery. And when short term recovery comes, they start feeling positive in the longer term.
    ....as I said before and will say again, in markets, there should be no Denial and Procrastination, when market participants stay in denial for longer than is necessary, it will be more painful to make a decision after a sizeable decline. In the end, the less experienced will throw in the towel when it has got completely crushed as they can't take it anymore.
    ...the best approach IMO is always understanding the macro environment underpinning the sector the stock is in. Macro rules, micro less so.
    ...just stay and do nothing can work for some stocks, but understanding valuation matters so one needs to DYOR and not listen to positive talk all the time. They will tell you one thing and do another.
 
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