....a mixed bag of data with underwhelming retail sales at 0.1%...

....a mixed bag of data with underwhelming retail sales at 0.1% m-o-m but m-o-m industrial production rose 0.9% (vs 0.3% est)
....US major indices managed to eke out small gains
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1803156152307556468
....Commodities and resource stocks fared better overnight with the exception of lithium stocks which continued its south-bound trajectory.
....the S&P500 is coming up against the 5,500 resistance level with daily RSI flashing overbought. Nasdaq is even more overbought with RSI close to 80. Either a correction is around the corner or the baby steps climb continue until no more baby steps upwards can be eked out, resulting in a big flush.

'We haven't had a four-week span where the US stock market has gone up so much with so many stocks within the market going down, based on data going back to 2002.'
https://x.com/jessefelder/status/1803091565294018993

.....US market participants are heavily into option trades to maximise gains with minimum capital, some have resorted to both astrology and social media....its like the time when we were told that when the shoeshine boy or the cab driver ask what they should be buying, it was a signal that the peak was nigh. Today's shoeshine boy is your average social media millennial who have taken to the markets to address their cost of living issues.
.....as I said before, the US stock market is now one giant casino, you may be or want to think you are an investor but you are investing in a casino den, so you are equally subjected to risks of excessive speculation regardless of what you buy or your intention for investment. In a speculative risk-riddled market, investors can end up as collateral damage. Through the greed and risky actions of some US market participants you have no control over whatsoever. When US equity bubble pops, everything everywhere will fall, taking the economies with it and could likely result in a protracted winter hibernation for stocks.
....this makes the Buy, Hold, Set and Forget type investing so prone to calamitous outcome in a highly overvalued market environment. It is at such time that my caution of Doing Nothing Is Doing Something ought to be given some serious consideration.

..and as to overvaluation:
S&P 500 Tech sector's price/sales ratio is going vertical and at an all-time high
https://x.com/KevRGordon/status/1803033687908577414

..those old enough to remember this famous quote by Scott McNeely
Scott McNeely was the CEO of Sun Microsystems, one of the darlings of that bubble. At its peak his stock hit valuation of ten-times revenues. A couple of years afterward he had this to say about that time (via Bloomberg): At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends.

...and with S&P500 Price/Sales ratio closing in on 10x, this is exactly Where We're AT !

...we are homing in close to that inflection point before the reckoning - if you are on big gains, paper profits count for nuts if unrealised.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	STOCK INDICES [US 18 Jun 24]	Overnight %
1	DOW	0.15%	38,834
2	S&P500	0.25%	5,487
3	NASDAQ	0.02%	17,860
4	DXY	-0.05%	105.27
5	US 2 YR	-0.90%	4,718
6	US 10 YR	-1.41%	4.219
7	AUD	0.62%	0.6655
8	GOLD	0.45%	$ 2,329
9	SILVER	0.25%	$ 29.54
10	BTC	-2.14%	$   64,975
11
12
13	GOLD	Overnight %
14	GDX	1.51%
15	GDXJ	1.71%
16	NEWMONT GOLDCORP(NEM)	2.15%
17	BARRICK GOLD (GOLD)	1.67%
18	AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM)	0.56%
19	SILVER
20	SIL	1.54%
21	SILJ	1.95%
22	PAN AMERICAN SILVER(PAAS)	1.58%
23	LITHIUM
24	SPROTT LITHIUM MINERS (LITP)	-0.47%
25	GLOBAL X LITHIUM (LIT)	0.44%
26	ALBEMARLE (ALB)	-1.08%
27	SOQUIMICH (SQM)	-1.47%
28	LITHIUM AMERICAS (LAC)	0.36%
29	PIEDMONT LITHIUM (PLL)	-4.97%
30	ARCADIUM LITHIUM	-0.59%
31	PATRIOT BATTERY METALS	-4.72%
32	COPPER
33	GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS(COPX)	1.50%
34	BHP	0.73%
35	RIO	0.41%
36	SOUTHERN COPPER (SCCO)	2.61%
37	FREEPORT MCMORAN (FCX)	0.91%
38	FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS (FQVLF)	3.72%
39	TECK RESOURCES (TECK)	-0.67%
40	OIL
41	XLE	0.42%
42	EXXON (XOM)	0.96%
43	CHEVRON )CVX)	0.08%
44	OCCIDENTAL (OXY)	1.76%
45	CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)	-0.12%
46	MARATHON OIL (MRO)	0.00%
47	HALLIBURTON (HAL)	-1.41%
48	COAL
49	RANGE GLOBAL COAL (COAL)	0.81%
50	PEABODY ENERGY (BTU)	-0.35%
51	ALPHA METALLURGICAL (AMR)	1.72%
52	ARCH RESOURCES (ARCH)	1.43%
53	WARRIOR MET COAL (HCC)	-0.15%
54	URANIUM
55	GLOBAL X URANIUM (URA)	2.49%
56	NICKEL
57	SPROTT NICKEL MINERS (NIKL)	1.30%
58	RARE EARTHS
59	OPTICA RARE EARTHS (CRIT)	1.09%

'Magnificent 7' Stocks Fade As NVDA Becomes World's Largest Company... Ever

BY Zero Hedge
WEDNESDAY, JUN 19, 2024 - 06:00 AM
In an attempt to not bury the lead, NVDA continued its irrepressible charge higher (up $375 BN in the last week, up $1.44 TN in the last two months, and up $2.2 TN YTD)...

Source: Bloomberg

... topping MSFT and AAPL as the world's largest market cap company... ever...

Source: Bloomberg
Did America's capital markets just become a 'Magnificent One' market as the rest of the MAG7 faded today...

Source: Bloomberg
Earlier in the day, weak retail sales but strong industrial production offered a mixed background for today's trading and stocks trod water for most of the early going (apart from Small Caps) as bond yields tumbled.
Also a mixed bag of FedSpeak today (with Goolsbee the standout dove as always against the other realists)

• *FED'S MUSALEM: COULD TAKE 'QUARTERS' TO SEE DATA TO SUPPORT CUT
• *FED'S MUSALEM: WOULD SUPPORT HIKE IF INF. PROGRESS STALLS, REVERSES
• *FED'S LOGAN: I'M STILL WORRIED ABOUT UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION
• *FED'S KUGLER: RETAIL SALES INDICATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MAY BE COOLING
• *FED'S GOOLSBEE SAYS MAY CPI NUMBERS WERE 'EXCELLENT'

The CBO estimated a much bigger deficit than expected which briefly spooked stocks but as always any dip was bought.
But, of note, Nasdaq was the day's laggard and Small Caps led the day (but all with very modest changes)...

Small Caps swings did not appear to come from any squeezes as 'most shorted' was very quiet again...

Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations (dovishly) rose today...

Source: Bloomberg
And combined with weak retail sales data and a super strong 20Y auction, Treasury yields tumbled, erasing all of yesterday's yield rises...

Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dipped lower today...

Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ETFs have seen 5 net outflows in the last six days...

Source: Bloomberg
...spot bitcoin breaking down towards $64,000...

Source: Bloomberg
Gold managed modest gains as the dollar dipped today...

Source: Bloomberg
Oil extended its gains, with WTI testing up towards $82 near 7 week highs...

Source: Bloomberg
Finally, remember the dotcom bubble... and CSCO's dominance... well you ain't seen nothing...

Source: Bloomberg
...meh, it's probably different this time, right!