Recession chat seemed massively overblown in 2023. But 5%...

Recession chat seemed massively overblown in 2023. But 5% probability today, really?

https://x.com/darioperkins/status/1803773377179480281

....in Oct 2023, the expectations were growing that US economy was on the verge of recession and it coincided with the lows for the equity markets. But in hindsight, it was premature and too early a call.

....now the expectation is just 5% probability for a recession, opting instead for a soft landing outcome. So now we see market hitting new highs with absolute complacency.

....how sure are we that we are right/correct now? It is more likely that our current expectations are wrong but timing of downturn is hard to call.