Its Over, page-22512

...another day of supposed calm, but under the hood, we see signs of weakness, consumer weakness as Walgreens Boot plunged -22%, its weakest one day ever, Levi Strauss -15.4% and after the bell, Nike provided FY25 mid single digit contraction in revenue guidance cause its stock to decline -11% (and its PE is still circa 23x!)
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1806418290912485681
....it somehow feels that the market calm is engineered at the indices level, its an election year.
....but the market's calm after the ugly macros and higher PCE price numbers came out is so telling that it is numbed and complacent. Who cares right, there's still money to be made, so speculators went into SMCI pushing the stock +7.12%
....Gold recovered $29 to edge it out of the delicate $2300 zone but with higher for longer rates, consolidation could be a little extended; it does not help when ABN Amro comes out with a $2k projection by year end (possible with a market crash).
....Commodities with exception of O&G (Oil and Gold) pared back yesterday's gains, lithium, copper and coal stocks were frontrunners in the retracement.
....As long as Oil is above $80 (WTI Crude@$82), inflation is unlikely to move down closer to the Fed's 2% target and we're already seeing disinflation ending across Australia, US, EU, inflation rising in Japan, so with the market expecting a Sept rate cut, it may be in for a rude shock if Powell holds steady. The higher oil goes, the higher the inflation or the slower the disinflation, and the greater the likelihood of rates staying higher for longer and increasing risk of US recession by Q4 2024 or Q1 2025....a stagflationary scenario is becoming a closer reality.
....all suggesting to me given Where We're At (see my post last night on Hindenburg Omen), Buy and Hodlers have a short window left to determine their risk positioning - and for those who feel the urge to buy equities now or get more exposed, seemingly it feels to me like we have an exhausted mountain hiker who is given Monster drink to delay the inevitable pause and choosing to buy&hold now is like choosing to go on a marathon during a harsh winter with a good chance of a nasty blizzard storm.
.....as Walgreen, Nike, Levi, Micron have showed us, stocks are in for a brutal slaughter when they fail to meet guidance, stocks are taking their turns to face the chopping block and mean revert and that is the market we're in, stock indices are less representative.  Individual stock train wreck happening within an overall market that tries to convey strength. Kind of 'fake' market if you like.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	STOCK INDICES [US 27 Jun 24]	Overnight %
1	DOW	0.09%	39,164
2	S&P500	0.09%	5,482
3	NASDAQ	0.30%	17,857
4	DXY	-0.13%	105.92
5	US 2 YR	-0.78%	4.712
6	US 10 YR	-0.69%	4.286
7	AUD	0.05%	0.6648
8	GOLD	1.28%	$ 2,327
9	SILVER	0.71%	$ 28.97
10	BTC	0.82%	$   61,539
11
12
13	GOLD	Overnight %
14	GDX	1.21%
15	GDXJ	1.53%
16	NEWMONT GOLDCORP(NEM)	0.94%
17	BARRICK GOLD (GOLD)	0.24%
18	AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM)	1.56%
19	SILVER
20	SIL	0.00%
21	SILJ	0.44%
22	PAN AMERICAN SILVER(PAAS)	0.45%
23	LITHIUM
24	SPROTT LITHIUM MINERS (LITP)	-1.71%
25	GLOBAL X LITHIUM (LIT)	-1.82%
26	ALBEMARLE (ALB)	-4.00%
27	SOQUIMICH (SQM)	-3.02%
28	LITHIUM AMERICAS (LAC)	2.58%
29	PIEDMONT LITHIUM (PLL)	1.41%
30	ARCADIUM LITHIUM	-4.75%
31	PATRIOT BATTERY METALS	-1.89%
32	COPPER
33	GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS(COPX)	-1.59%
34	BHP	-1.03%
35	RIO	-1.47%
36	SOUTHERN COPPER (SCCO)	-0.97%
37	FREEPORT MCMORAN (FCX)	-2.32%
38	FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS (FQVLF)	-0.70%
39	TECK RESOURCES (TECK)	-0.52%
40	OIL
41	XLE	0.22%
42	EXXON (XOM)	0.43%
43	CHEVRON )CVX)	0.24%
44	OCCIDENTAL (OXY)	-0.29%
45	CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)	0.32%
46	MARATHON OIL (MRO)	0.32%
47	HALLIBURTON (HAL)	-1.23%
48	COAL
49	RANGE GLOBAL COAL (COAL)	0.33%
50	PEABODY ENERGY (BTU)	-1.77%
51	ALPHA METALLURGICAL (AMR)	-2.01%
52	ARCH RESOURCES (ARCH)	-1.22%
53	WARRIOR MET COAL (HCC)	-0.81%
54	URANIUM
55	GLOBAL X URANIUM (URA)	1.74%
56	NICKEL
57	SPROTT NICKEL MINERS (NIKL)	0.85%
58	RARE EARTHS
59	OPTICA RARE EARTHS (CRIT)	-1.07%

Bonds, Bullion, Bitcoin, & Big-Tech (Ex-NVDA) Bid Despite Macro Meltdown

BY Zero Hedge
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 - 06:00 AM

Macro was ugly - really ugly - today: Personal Consumption ugly (Q1 downgraded on 3rd look), continuing jobless claims ugly (highest since Nov 2021), core capital goods new orders and shipments ugly (not a great signals for Q2 GDP), pending home sales ugly (puke to record lows SAAR), and finally, Kansas City Fed manufacturing ugly (21st month in a row without expansion)...
This smashed the US Macro Surprise Index to its weakest since January 2016 (and we have May's PCE tomorrow)...

Micro was not pretty: Micron spooked the AI trade (NVDA lower too)...

...Consumer weakness exhibited by Walgreens (lowest since 1997)

...and Levi Strauss (biggest daily drop ever)...

But Small Caps outperformed strongly on the day, as Nasdaq managed small gains and The Dow and S&P lagged, all just holding green into the close...

Once again the range in the S&P 500 was very low and realized vol over the last 10 days has dropped to multi-year lows (thanks long gamma and 0-DTE)

Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks managed gains despite NVDA's loss...

Source: Bloomberg
Bank stocks were mixed after the stress tests (GS down on ccard losses, JPM up on strong capital, which ironically they came out and said was too generous)...

Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were bid across the curve with the belly modestly outperforming (down 3-4bps). Today's rally pushed 2Y yields lower on the week...

Source: Bloomberg
The macro was ugly enough to send rate-cut expectations (dovishly) higher on the day...

Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was flat to slightly lower after yesterday's yen-driven melt-up...

Source: Bloomberg
Dollar weakness prompted a rally in gold, finding support at $2300...

Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin managed to bounce back above $62,000...

Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices rebounded once again, with WTI breaking out above $82, its highest since April...

Source: Bloomberg