Its Over, page-22525

...forecasts that seem rather surprising in the longer term.

GOLD AND SILVER OUTLOOK

Macquarie

Macquarie describes its overall view on gold as “even-weight”. They note that gold has “performed impressively” on the back of rate cut expectations, challenging fiscal outlooks, and strong Chinese investor demand that is expected to persist.

Macquarie notes silver is also benefiting from the above factors, but that it’s “also benefiting from its industrial gearing to the energy transition”.

Figure 7 - Gold Price Update versus consensus (US $/t). Source: Macquarie Research, Bloomberg, Visible Alpha, June 2024. (From: Commodities update: Hard Knock Li-Fe, Macquarie Research, June 21, 2024)

The broker increased its 2024 gold price target by 7% to US$2,276/oz and its 2025 price target by 22% to US$2,425/oz. These targets are 6% and 9% respectively above consensus.

Macquarie is forecasting the gold price to peak at US$2,500/oz in mid-2025, and then average US$2,200/oz in 2026 (this target increased by 21%). The broker's long-term forecast, that is, beyond 2028 is up 9% to $US1,800/oz in real terms.

Macquarie’s silver price targets are as follows: US$30.75/oz in FY25, US$30.25 in FY26, US$26.50/oz in FY27, and US$25.50/oz in FY28.
Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley expects gold to continue to be supported in the second half of 2024, “central bank buying and falling real yields”.

The broker’s gold price targets are as follows: US$2,368/oz in 2024 (+7%), US$2,538/oz in 2025 (+17%), US$2,200 in 2026 (+10%), US$2,200/oz in 2027 (+22%), US$2,000/oz in 2028 (+11%), and US$1,604/oz in the long term (-1%) (i.e. 2030 and beyond).