...markets always look forwards, not what has been. And this is why retail holders are often Behind the Curve.
...the iron ore price and BHP price were higher in anticipation or rather hope for a China stimulus in the forthcoming mid July Chinese leaders meeting on the economy.
...but those expectations are now fading. They're reining in before waiting for the outcome. Good news have been baked in before they even know the outcome.
Citi recommends clients ‘fade iron ore strength’
Alex Gluyas
Citi has warned that iron ore prices are likely to remain volatile ahead of China’s Third Plenum meeting, and tipped that fundamentals suggest prices will decline below $US100 a tonne in the coming months.
It comes as iron ore futures hit the highest level in nearly a month amid expectations for additional stimulus that could be announced at the upcoming Third Plenum – which outlines China’s long term economic strategies. The meeting will be held from July 15 to 18.
But Citi warned that onshore steel demand in China remains muted with construction and infrastructure activity slowing due to inclement weather and the usual summer slowdown.
“Steel inventories are increasing while port inventories of iron ore remain high,” said Citi analyst Shreyas Madabushi. “Steel mill margins continue to be squeezed especially at current spot iron ore prices and steel output controls are likely to reduce iron ore demand.”
Citi added that new policy measures aimed at addressing China’s housing glut are unlikely to stimulate steel demand.
The broker recommended “fading strength in iron ore prices over the summer”, and left its three-month price target unchanged at $US95 a tonne.
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