Now, the man who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, thinks
2024 will go to Joe Biden. At least, as of now. He won’t fully make the call on the next president until August. But, he told veteran reporter Chris Cillizza, he’s heavily leaning toward Biden by using his 13 true/false model that’s worked 90% of the time.
He has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election. Here’s Allan Lichtman’s pick for the 2024 Trump-Biden race - silive.comAllan Lichtman, a historian renowned for his accurate election predictions, has weighed in on the 2024 election. Despite Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in some polls, Lichtman believes that replacing Biden could be a mistake for Democrats. He argues that debate performance, which has been a topic of concern, is not a decisive factor in election outcomes. Lichtman’s predictive system, based on historical factors, suggests that the incumbent party would need to lose six specific “keys” to lose the White House.
So, while he hasn’t made a final prediction yet, he cautions against underestimating an incumbent president based solely on debate performance1.
Additionally, Lichtman previously stated that Biden has an advantage in 2024, even though polling data may suggest otherwise....quite possibly the Bidens had consulted Allan, as did many Presidents did in the past (prior to Trump).
....Allan is yet to be conclusive on Biden but is leaning Biden until he firms his decision next month.
....the US electorate has a difficult choice to make, but if Biden wins he could step down not long after to pass the baton to his VP. A new VP e.g Gretchen Whitmar could invigorate his standing and send out a message that he intends to transfer his presidency rather than sitting through another 4 years.
....That IMO could be the solution, simply because a new candidate/nominee other than Kamala Harris would not be able to get access to the Biden campaign funds and there's just a limited time for the new nominee to be known to the electorate.
