...I know of late, you can say I have been 'beating' resource stocks.
...but don't get me wrong, I love resource stocks and made lots from it before.
...Just as I'm beating lithium, I've made too from lithium previously
...But just look at the most right hand column of the chart on this link and see which asset class is in red (over period 2011-2024)....its Commodities
...Commodities are CYCLICAL asset class, they are not meant to be held forever (Peter Lynch actually said that). They can go up a lot and then they fall sharply, rinse and repeat. And each time, you would be told the supply deficit narrative- there won't be enough of it so the price will stay high.
....Yep, we saw that with coal, it fell back, we saw that with oil, it fell back, we saw that with lithium, it fell sharply back, we are seeing it with copper...
....some of you may remember back in the 70s when the idea of peak oil was mooted, beyond which oil will be depleted and production reduced. Today, USA is the biggest oil producer, when it was the largest importer then.
....no one truly understands how much of these resources can be found underneath. The progress of technology only assures that more will be found if the need/demand is there.
....Commodity price never go up in a straight line without mean reversion. It is not a tech company like Microsoft.
....so IMO don't fall in love with your resource stocks. When recession comes, they would be hit very hard.
