* Benign CPI numbers paved the way for a 90% imputation of a Sept rate cut, spurring a rotation out of mega techs into small caps.
* Russell2000 small caps gained +3.59% while Nasdaq fell -1.92%
IWM Stock Fund Price and Chart — AMEX:IWM — TradingView
Tesla -8.5%, NVIDIA -5.57%, AAPL -2.32%, MSFT -2.48%, Meta -4.11%
...this is probably the most stark stock heatmap in a long while
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1811490835013452126
* Precious metals shot higher on rate cut prospects, Gold surged to close at $2412, Silver at $31.37
* Commodity stocks fared well notably Lithium, Gold and Silver and to a lesser extent Oil, making them IMO great short term momentum trading plays.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 0 STOCK INDICES [US 11 Jul 24] Overnight % 1 DOW 0.08% 39,753 2 S&P500 -0.88% 5,584 3 NASDAQ -1.92% 18,288 4 DXY -0.56% 104.46 5 US 2 YR -2.54% 4.515 6 US 10 YR -1.64% 4.208 7 AUD 0.26% 0.6759 8 GOLD 1.85% $ 2,415 9 SILVER 2.08% $ 31.46 10 BTC -0.24% $ 57,322 11 12 13 GOLD Overnight % 14 GDX 2.81% 15 GDXJ 3.31% 16 NEWMONT GOLDCORP(NEM) 3.76% 17 BARRICK GOLD (GOLD) 1.97% 18 AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM) 1.83% 19 SILVER 20 SIL 3.30% 21 SILJ 3.69% 22 PAN AMERICAN SILVER(PAAS) 5.87% 23 LITHIUM 24 SPROTT LITHIUM MINERS (LITP) 3.52% 25 GLOBAL X LITHIUM (LIT) 2.20% 26 ALBEMARLE (ALB) 1.08% 27 SOQUIMICH (SQM) 2.26% 28 LITHIUM AMERICAS (LAC) 5.04% 29 PIEDMONT LITHIUM (PLL) 5.36% 30 ARCADIUM LITHIUM 4.44% 31 PATRIOT BATTERY METALS 4.86% 32 COPPER 33 GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS(COPX) -0.40% 34 BHP -0.55% 35 RIO 0.87% 36 SOUTHERN COPPER (SCCO) -1.50% 37 FREEPORT MCMORAN (FCX) -0.15% 38 FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS (FQVLF) 2.16% 39 TECK RESOURCES (TECK) -0.32% 40 OIL 41 XLE 1.04% 42 EXXON (XOM) 1.19% 43 CHEVRON )CVX) 0.08% 44 OCCIDENTAL (OXY) 0.11% 45 CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) 1.30% 46 MARATHON OIL (MRO) 1.60% 47 HALLIBURTON (HAL) 1.82% 48 COAL 49 RANGE GLOBAL COAL (COAL) 0.00% 50 PEABODY ENERGY (BTU) 1.84% 51 ALPHA METALLURGICAL (AMR) 2.00% 52 ARCH RESOURCES (ARCH) 1.69% 53 WARRIOR MET COAL (HCC) 2.12% 54 URANIUM 55 GLOBAL X URANIUM (URA) 0.71% 56 NICKEL 57 SPROTT NICKEL MINERS (NIKL) 0.98% 58 RARE EARTHS 59 OPTICA RARE EARTHS (CRIT) 0.93%
Misses across the board today in CPI left US macro surprise data languishing in 'not so soft landing' territory...
Source: Bloomberg
...as inflation and growth factors have are now tumbling in a 'recession-y' kinda way...
Source: Bloomberg
...all of which prompted a surge in rate-cut hopes, with 2024 expectations at their highest since April (61bps) as 2025 is now pricing in four full rate-cuts...
Source: Bloomberg
Which sent gold higher, the dollar lower and Treasury yields plunging (led by the short-end)...
Source: Bloomberg
... BUT the picture was very different in equity market land...
Source: Bloomberg
...where Nasdaq was monkeyhammered while Small Caps surged. The Dow clung to unchanged as the S&P ended off around 1% weighed down by Tech obviously...
That RTY/NDX spread was over 600bps at its peak today. By the close it was the biggest relative outperformance of the Russell 2000 over Nasdaq 100 since 2002...
Source: Bloomberg
...and oddly, breadth was crazy positive despite the ugliness as the reverse MAG7 trade struck hard...
388 members of the S&P currently trading up on the day vs 111 in the red (top 5 breadth day of the year).
TSLA tumbled on robotaxi-delays talk...
NVDA stalled at its previous record close and dropped over 5%...
However, as Goldman's traders noted, as big as today's moves are, they hardly register on long-term charts...
Source: Bloomberg
But, the NDX/RTY pair does remain at a key support level for now...
Source: Bloomberg
It has been 48 days since all the Mag7 names closed red on the same day, the longest streak in > 10 years.
Moves felt huge today (and they are), but important to keep some context (h/t Bartlett):
Finally, before we leave stocks, volumes on Goldman's trading desk were tracking higher +27% vs the 20dma and index trading leading the way w/ ETF’s capturing 31% of the overall tape.
- NDX -2.2% ... back to where it was trading on Friday (7/5)
- NVDA -5% ... back to where it was trading on Monday (7/8)
- Semis -4% ... back to where they were trading Friday (7/5)
- AAPL -3% ... back to where it was trading on Monday (7/8)
- NDX/RTY -5% ... top 3 biggest move in spread in last 5 years, but just back to where the spread was in mid-June (6/24)
Both LOs and HFs much better for sale.
There was plenty of activity in other asset classes too...
- LO supply concentrated in mainly Tech + Hcare, vs buying Discretionary names and macro products.
- HF’s sellers of every sector expect Indust. and Cons Discretionary (covers) with supply most concentrated across Tech.
The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal on the dovishness back to pre-June Payrolls lows...
Source: Bloomberg
..helped lower by alleged BOJ intervention to strengthen the yen...
Source: Bloomberg
Gold soared back near record highs with spot prices topping $2400 once again...
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices managed gains too with WTI back up to $83...
Source: Bloomberg
And Powell and Biden better hope that oil prices (and thus gas prices) start coming down soon or today's CPI may be overwhelmed...
Source: Bloomberg
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