* Market breadth improved as S&P500 continues to make new highs...

* Market breadth improved as S&P500 continues to make new highs
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1812940200269783242
* At mega cap level it was mixed, Tesla +1.78%, NVIDIA -0.62%, AAPL +1.67%, SMCI -1.35%, Amazon -0.92%, AMD -0.98%, Meta -0.54%,
* At the commodities/materials sector, the exuberance wasn't showing, with exception of oil and coal (Trump remember?), 'green' critical minerals sector declined- lithium, copper, nickel, rare earths.
* I did caution in my EV/Lithium thread before that as we progresses towards Nov, the lithium sector is likely to be marked down as Trump's prospects advances, we saw that overnight. Markets are forward looking. The lithium window is narrowing.
* Gold has done well overnight, rising +0.46% to $2422, but gold stocks diverged with GDX -0.58% but Silver did not follow Gold. Which sounded strange but actually isn't IMO. I think Gold rose because of additional premium gained from the prospect of a Trump presidency, silver does not enjoy the same safe haven status while gold stocks are viewed as being 'neutral' when it comes to Trump ('neutral' as in benefiting from a Trump presidency).
* ASX is primarily resource and financials. Resource stocks are unlikely to get the boost unless/until we get a notable China stimulus
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1812767061501714537
So concentration risk in our banks will continue as US banks had a strong showing with XLF +1.4% after US banks passed the expectations test.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	STOCK INDICES [US 15 Jul 24]	Overnight %
1	DOW	0.53%	40,211
2	S&P500	0.28%	5,631
3	NASDAQ	0.42%	18,475
4	DXY	0.15%	104.25
5	US 2 YR	-0.01%	4.460
6	US 10 YR	1.10%	4.231
7	AUD	0.02%	0.6761
8	GOLD	0.46%	$   2,422
9	SILVER	-0.37%	$   30.67
10	BTC	5.89%	$    63,641
11
12
13	GOLD	Overnight %
14	GDX	-0.58%
15	GDXJ	-0.55%
16	NEWMONT GOLDCORP(NEM)	-0.34%
17	BARRICK GOLD (GOLD)	-0.86%
18	AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM)	-0.49%
19	SILVER
20	SIL	-0.73%
21	SILJ	-0.77%
22	PAN AMERICAN SILVER(PAAS)	-2.15%
23	LITHIUM
24	SPROTT LITHIUM MINERS (LITP)	-2.73%
25	GLOBAL X LITHIUM (LIT)	-2.20%
26	ALBEMARLE (ALB)	-2.43%
27	SOQUIMICH (SQM)	-2.59%
28	LITHIUM AMERICAS (LAC)	5.07%
29	PIEDMONT LITHIUM (PLL)	1.39%
30	ARCADIUM LITHIUM	-2.45%
31	PATRIOT BATTERY METALS	-7.29%
32	COPPER
33	GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS(COPX)	-1.83%
34	BHP	-1.62%
35	RIO	-1.42%
36	SOUTHERN COPPER (SCCO)	-2.27%
37	FREEPORT MCMORAN (FCX)	-1.39%
38	FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS (FQVLF)	-3.07%
39	TECK RESOURCES (TECK)	-1.54%
40	OIL
41	XLE	1.56%
42	EXXON (XOM)	1.71%
43	CHEVRON )CVX)	1.57%
44	OCCIDENTAL (OXY)	1.31%
45	CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)	1.26%
46	MARATHON OIL (MRO)	1.02%
47	HALLIBURTON (HAL)	3.80%
48	COAL
49	RANGE GLOBAL COAL (COAL)	0.70%
50	PEABODY ENERGY (BTU)	2.13%
51	ALPHA METALLURGICAL (AMR)	1.40%
52	ARCH RESOURCES (ARCH)	0.59%
53	WARRIOR MET COAL (HCC)	2.96%
54	URANIUM
55	GLOBAL X URANIUM (URA)	-1.09%
56	NICKEL
57	SPROTT NICKEL MINERS (NIKL)	-0.37%
58	RARE EARTHS
59	OPTICA RARE EARTHS (CRIT)	-1.90%

by Zero Hedge

The 'Trump trade' played out today...

Source: Bloomberg
...as prediction markets surge in the former president's favor...


Source: Bloomberg
Trump's media stocks soared...

All the major US equity indices were higher today with Small Caps absolutely ripping and S&P and Nasdaq meh...

The outperformance of the Russell 2000 over Nasdaq 100 over the past three days is outdone only by the moves made in March 2001 as the dotcom bubble imploded...

Source: Bloomberg
The almost 800bps spread is on par with events such as Lehman (Oct 2008), Trump Election (Nov 2016), and Biden election (Nov 2020).
Goldman's treading desk noted that overall activity levels are up +25% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes up  +4% vs the 10dma, as their floor tilts -1% better for sale,  with both HFs and LOs tilted that way

• HFs skew -9% better for sale, tilted that way in every sector except Materials & Industrials.  Supply is most concentrated in Energy & Staples where short supply is most prevalent.  Tech, Fins, HCare and Cons Disc also net for sale, but mostly long supply
• LOs are -4% better for sale, as every sector ex-Fins, Energy & Macro Products tilts that way.  Supply is heavily concentrated in Disc, HCare & Utes with more modest profit taking in Mega Tech

Energy stocks outperformed and only rate-sensitive Utes were dumped today (and in that context, Real Estate was stronger than expected - Trump?)...

Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were all higher today but with a notable underperformance at the long-end (30Y +6bps, 2Y unch) which has dragged the long-end basically back to unchanged since CPI (juiced by the Trump trade too) as the short-end doves it up....

Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) disinverted for the first time since January (which some also look at as driven by a 'Trump' bet)...

Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut odds shifted dovishly for 2024 today (66bps now priced in  - so a 50-50 chance of 3 cuts by year-end), while Powell's comments prompted some hawkishness for 2025 (looks like Trump odds just bringing fwd cuts)....

Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin soared after Trump's assassination survival (as the crypto-friendly candidate)...

Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum also rallied and was juiced a little by today's chatter that ETH ETFs will launch tomorrow, which lifted it back from the weekend's underpeformance relative to BTC...

Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged back up near record highs today...

Source: Bloomberg
Despite energy stocks' gains, oil prices slipped lower today (drill, baby drill; less geopol risk?)...

Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we detailed here, US equity futures traders have never, ever been 'longer' than they are now...

What could go wrong?

Source: Bloomberg
Don't worry though, it's different this time.