Well that would suggest more 'what does Moody's know?'
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/fed-could-cut-rates-by-25-bps-in-july-another-50-bps-to-follow-in-september-moodys/articleshow/111780636.cms
They do seem to be outliers here, given other indicators have it as a 7% chance. Which I suppose is still 'could', lol.
But there's a couple of clues as to why the Fed would pull the trigger earlier...
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/powell-signals-rate-cut-coming-into-viewbut-declines-to-say-when-103af55a?st=6h451yrjdadgigg&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
Like trying not to tank the stockmarket, for instance.
