* A broad selloff of almost everything saw the Dow falling...

* A broad selloff of almost everything saw the Dow falling -533pts while IWM down -1.93% and mega tech losses were more moderate to avert a larger decline. Heatmap is a sea of red.
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1814027853979058631
https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1814034303283605641
* Yesterday I indicated that the declining AUD was a sign of Risk Off, overnight we saw it retreat further closer to 67c
* NVIDIA survived the major support test closing +2.63%, AMD -2.3%, AAPL -2.3%, Amazon -2.22%, MSFT -0.71%
* A larger US job claims data spooked the market about further weakening of the economy, that hit copper hard -3% and copper stocks. All material/resource stocks with exception of oil, suffered losses across the board.
* Silver suffered a sharp decline to below $30 at $29.83, nothing beats the volatility of silver in commodities.
* Gold closed under Gary Savage key $2450 at $2445, just as we see more positive reports on Gold's trajectory
* Indications are that the Fed pivot is imminent based on recent data, but rather than being pre-emptive and presumptive, lets see what the Fed will do; if the Fed does not cut, the market could suffer a sharp correction but if it does, it won't make Trump happy and Powell may not be in his "good books". How does Powell want to play this? He is a Republican. And increasing number of market pundits are expecting an even sooner rate cut. Markets are all about Expectations and the 'good news' rate cut has been baked in, so that isn't as good news even if it is delivered.
* If this is not a blindsiding market, what is?
* As I had mentioned, this is a market only worthy of day trades, but even that is a mugs game, you win a day to lose it all and more the next.  

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	STOCK INDICES [US 18 Jul 24]	Overnight %
1	DOW	-1.29%	40,665
2	S&P500	-0.78%	5,544
3	NASDAQ	-0.68%	17,874
4	DXY	0.41%	104.17
5	US 2 YR	0.96%	4.471
6	US 10 YR	1.35%	4.202
7	AUD	-0.33%	0.6707
8	GOLD	-0.55%	$   2,445
9	SILVER	-1.58%	$   29.82
10	BTC	-0.80%	$    63,810
11
12
13	GOLD	Overnight %
14	GDX	-1.48%
15	GDXJ	-1.96%
16	NEWMONT GOLDCORP(NEM)	-1.57%
17	BARRICK GOLD (GOLD)	-1.80%
18	AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM)	-0.72%
19	SILVER
20	SIL	-2.61%
21	SILJ	-3.16%
22	PAN AMERICAN SILVER(PAAS)	-2.67%
23	LITHIUM
24	SPROTT LITHIUM MINERS (LITP)	-1.73%
25	GLOBAL X LITHIUM (LIT)	-0.91%
26	ALBEMARLE (ALB)	-1.34%
27	SOQUIMICH (SQM)	-3.18%
28	LITHIUM AMERICAS (LAC)	-5.92%
29	PIEDMONT LITHIUM (PLL)	-6.55%
30	ARCADIUM LITHIUM	-1.63%
31	PATRIOT BATTERY METALS	-1.86%
32	COPPER
33	GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS(COPX)	-3.88%
34	BHP	-1.53%
35	RIO	-2.13%
36	SOUTHERN COPPER (SCCO)	-5.38%
37	FREEPORT MCMORAN (FCX)	-5.32%
38	FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS (FQVLF)	-6.14%
39	TECK RESOURCES (TECK)	-5.04%
40	OIL
41	XLE	0.18%
42	EXXON (XOM)	0.99%
43	CHEVRON )CVX)	0.47%
44	OCCIDENTAL (OXY)	0.92%
45	CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)	0.46%
46	MARATHON OIL (MRO)	0.52%
47	HALLIBURTON (HAL)	0.22%
48	COAL
49	RANGE GLOBAL COAL (COAL)	-1.26%
50	PEABODY ENERGY (BTU)	-2.28%
51	ALPHA METALLURGICAL (AMR)	-0.32%
52	ARCH RESOURCES (ARCH)	-2.03%
53	WARRIOR MET COAL (HCC)	-1.55%
54	URANIUM
55	GLOBAL X URANIUM (URA)	-2.41%
56	NICKEL
57	SPROTT NICKEL MINERS (NIKL)	-3.56%
58	RARE EARTHS
59	OPTICA RARE EARTHS (CRIT)	-3.38%

'Good' news from TSMC trumped yesterday's ASML bad news and a solid Philly Fed print helped juice stocks early but under the hood of the Philly Fed data was soaring inflation expectations, which along with general derisking sent stocks lower...

Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were the day's biggest loser - with a major swing intraday as they tried to ignite a squeeze at the open (from +1% to -2% intraday). The rest of the majors were all red. A late day rally put some lipstick on the pig but it wasn't pretty...


Bear in mind that - thanks to that late-day pump - we missed a historical event today in the S&P 500 - going back to the start of 1928, the SPX has never followed an all-time high with two consecutive losses of 1% or more.
Goldman's trading desk notes that volumes continue to be elevated (tracking +14% vs the trailing 20 days). Our floor is skewed +2% better to buy with HFs driving most of that.

• HFs are buying consumer discretionary and industrials vs selling tech for the 2nd day in a row.
• LOs also better to buy but activity from the group feels quieter than yesterday. LOs selling tech + Hcare vs buying fins.

'Size', 'Momentum', and 'Quality' were clubbed like a baby seal:

• The ~6% drop in the Size factor (GSP1SIZE Index) is biggest since May 2020 (small outperforming big)
• The 5.7% drop in Barra Momentum (GSP1MOMO Index) is is largest since Feb 2023 and the biggest drop since the factor began its ascent in Jan 2024.
• The 4% drop in Barra Quality (GSP1QUAL index) is nearly as extreme as December 2023, and the uptrend since 2021 appears broken.

Value dominating Growth (though both were sold today)...

Source: Bloomberg
Equal-weight S&P continues to play catch up to cap-weight...

Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks tumbled (once again) to their lowest in a month...

Source: Bloomberg
'Most Shorted' stocks suffered their second straight day of sizable losses as the Small-Cap squeeze ran out of ammo...

Source: Bloomberg
While equity vol (VIX) has angrily awoken from its slumber, bond vol (MOVE) has not... yet...

Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were dumped alongside stocks today with the whole curve up 3-4bps, back higher on the week...

Source: Bloomberg
Gold joined the selling party today, dropping back below $2450...

Source: Bloomberg
Choppy day for crude prices but WTI ended lower, struggling to hold $83.50...

Source: Bloomberg
Despite more ETF inflows, bitcoin suffered some more pain today unable to hold $65000 - but again, significantly less 'beta' to the general plunge in tech...

Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as everything else was sold, the dollar surged higher - unwinding all of the week's losses...

Source: Bloomberg