Its Over

Ray Dalio’s rising pessimism

Timothy Moore\

In a post on LinkedIn, billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio renewed his concern about the prospect of post-election violence in the US.

“The developments of the last month have moved the odds in favour of the election of Trump-led, ultra-conservative, nationalist, protectionist, isolationist, "God"-fearing administration which Republicans will certainly accept and Democrats will probably accept reluctantly.

“This reduces the likelihood of a contested election-prompted civil war, but it is not a sure outcome and if the Democrats are able to manage the transition of candidates well and Trump loses as a result, it is probable that we will see some form of civil war. By the way, the markets are increasingly reflecting this shift.”

Dalio also said it is clear that the urban, liberal globalists are lining up against the rural, conservative, "God"-fearing nationalists more than it’s simply Trump supporters lining up against Harris and her supporters.

“It is now pretty clear what Trump and the Republicans are for: they are hard-right. People say they don’t know what Kamala Harris is for because we haven’t seen her stress-tested, but it won’t matter much because people know that she is left of centre--and based on who is supporting her (as well as what she has said), people will be inclined to assume that she is pretty left of centre.”
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A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has found that Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll (with a 3% margin of error).
Yet, there's a catch. As we noted in the 2016 and 2020 elections, pollsters had their thumb on the scale by oversampling Democrats.
Well, they've done it again - sampling 426 Democrat voters vs. 376 Republicans and 341 Independents.

Meanwhile, other polls have Trump smoking Harris.

The prediction markets (PredictIt) show Harris trailing Trump 43 to 58.

....despite all the polls which have shown to be inaccurate in the past, there is a good chance the election will be a lot closer than most think.

....so if Trump loses we get civil war ? [it seems this was also prophesised] And Trump won't accept a result unless he wins. Democracy is already on the brink.

....and risk for the markets can't be higher.