Its Over, page-22997

* This thread had cautioned you Ahead of the Curve that a correction was in the works, the big selloff has begun.
https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1816201692888850571
* Mega techs were hammered: Tesla -12.33%, NVIDIA -6.8%, AAPL -2.88%, Alphabet -5.04%, MSFT -3.59%, Meta -5.61%, Amazon -2.99%, Broadcom -7.59%- this was the worst day for S&P500 and Nasdaq this year and finally ended an extended run of stocks never being down more than -2% since Oct 2023
Last week I cautioned that NVIDIA was nearing breaking down, and today it did exactly that, and it is now poised to fall into its mini-abyss to circa $100 level, a >-10% correction may be in the offing [its forthcoming results would determine its trajectory]
1 year view
NVIDIA Stock Chart — NASDAQ:NVDA Stock Price — TradingView
* I put the big selloff to 4 possible reasons:
a) Alphabet Google's underwhelming results (relative to expectations), being the catalyst
b) Under the hood, a reversal in yen carry trade is probably happening, USD has contracted against the Yen almost 10 yen since a month ago- and it is hurting those who borrowed yen to speculate on tech stocks- double whammy hurt
c) The emergence of Kamala Harris replacing Biden now makes the political outcome less certain with possible concerns over a disputed close outcome
d) Economic macros are worsening each day, as the yield curve steepens, do you notice that for the first time, the US 2 year was down while the 10 year was up causing the 2yr-10yr to narrow to just 14bps from 25bps just days ago.
This does not look good
https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1816150071471398992
* Gold and Silver were both doing well in early trade as with gold stocks until in afternoon session when they fell sharply; Gold dipped back below $2400 at $2397 and Silver below $29 at $28.90
*Lithium stocks were smashed [I did tell you that an underperforming asset class will get smashed even worse when the general market hit turbulence] while oil and coal were modestly lower and copper fell for the 8th consecutive day.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	STOCK INDICES [US 24 Jul 24]	Overnight %
1	DOW	-1.25%	39,853
2	S&P500	-2.31%	5,427
3	NASDAQ	-3.62%	17,345
4	DXY	-0.09%	104.36
5	US 2 YR	-0.27%	4.433
6	US 10 YR	1.10%	4.286
7	AUD	-0.50%	0.6581
8	GOLD	-0.51%	$   2,397
9	SILVER	-1.15%	$   28.90
10	BTC	-0.23%	$    65,735
11
12
13	GOLD	Overnight %
14	GDX	-0.59%
15	GDXJ	-1.39%
16	NEWMONT GOLDCORP(NEM)	1.34%
17	BARRICK GOLD (GOLD)	-0.59%
18	AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM)	-1.06%
19	SILVER
20	SIL	-1.13%
21	SILJ	-1.49%
22	PAN AMERICAN SILVER(PAAS)	-0.92%
23	LITHIUM
24	SPROTT LITHIUM MINERS (LITP)	-2.82%
25	GLOBAL X LITHIUM (LIT)	-3.04%
26	ALBEMARLE (ALB)	-0.66%
27	SOQUIMICH (SQM)	-2.38%
28	LITHIUM AMERICAS (LAC)	-6.01%
29	PIEDMONT LITHIUM (PLL)	-5.22%
30	ARCADIUM LITHIUM	-4.64%
31	PATRIOT BATTERY METALS	-5.78%
32	COPPER
33	GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS(COPX)	-1.27%
34	BHP	-1.16%
35	RIO	-0.06%
36	SOUTHERN COPPER (SCCO)	-1.43%
37	FREEPORT MCMORAN (FCX)	-2.41%
38	FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS (FQVLF)	3.05%
39	TECK RESOURCES (TECK)	-1.38%
40	OIL
41	XLE	0.01%
42	EXXON (XOM)	1.40%
43	CHEVRON )CVX)	0.64%
44	OCCIDENTAL (OXY)	-0.56%
45	CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP)	0.23%
46	MARATHON OIL (MRO)	0.07%
47	HALLIBURTON (HAL)	-1.49%
48	COAL
49	RANGE GLOBAL COAL (COAL)	-0.95%
50	PEABODY ENERGY (BTU)	-1.25%
51	ALPHA METALLURGICAL (AMR)	-0.43%
52	ARCH RESOURCES (ARCH)	-0.91%
53	WARRIOR MET COAL (HCC)	-0.22%
54	URANIUM
55	GLOBAL X URANIUM (URA)	-2.80%
56	NICKEL
57	SPROTT NICKEL MINERS (NIKL)	-1.11%
58	RARE EARTHS
59	OPTICA RARE EARTHS (CRIT)	-1.20%

Bonds & Big-Tech Bloodbath: Mag7 Meltdown Accelerates As Yield Curve 'Dis-Inverts' To 2-Year High

BY Zero Hedge
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 - 06:00 AM

Ugly Micro (Mag7 earnings fail to impress...enough) and Ugly Macro (home sales and manufacturing meltdown) left an Ugly day for stocks and bonds (the long-end) while the dollar, crypto, and commodities were all relatively unch by the close.

As UBS notes, similar to last Wednesday, today seems very much an Equity event which suggests that technicals and positioning are the major drivers.

All the major US equity indices were lower today but mega-cap tech was hit hardest, smashing Nasdaq down over 3.5% for its worst day since Dec 2022. Ugly close did not help at all. The Dow was the least ugly horse in the abattoir today...


The S&P 500 'no-2%-drop' streak is over...

The Mag7 basket of stocks suffered its biggest daily loss since Oct 2022 (having lost almost $1.75 trillion in market cap from their highs 10 days ago)...

Source: Bloomberg
All 7 of the Mag7 were lower today (unusual in itself)...

Source: Bloomberg
The focus for selling pressure appeared on Google's inline/reiterating capex is causing concern in some of the AI pockets of the market with VRT – 10%, AI Semis (GSCBSMHX) -420bps, Data Centers (GSTMTDAT) -330bps.

Source: Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs trading desk noted that volumes were explosive today (tracking +18% vs the trailing 20 days). Liquidity remains in focus with S&P top of book avg ~$13mm today (this has almost HALVED in the past week).

• LOs driving most of our supply tracking -8% better for sale (Tech, Fins, and Industrials with the largest sell-skews). LOs buying Hcare + Discretionary.
• HFs also better for sale led by supply in Tech, Industrials, & Fins. Short ratios elevated across Utes and Cons. Discretionary. Seeing HF buying in Hcare.

But the pain didn't end in stocks as the long-end of the Treasury curve was clubbed like a baby seal...

Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve is inflecting rapidly with 2s30s at its most disinverted since July 2022 (and 5s30s at its steepest since May 2023)...

Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations pushed higher again today with 4 full cuts priced back inf or 2025 (and a 50-50 chance of 2 or 3 cuts in 2024)...

Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the day basically unchanged, rallying during the US session, recovering European losses...

Source: Bloomberg
Major Yen carry unwind continues...

Source: Bloomberg
Gold was a mirror of the dollar with overnight strength sold during the US session to basically end unchanged...

Source: Bloomberg
Another strong day for ETH ETF volumes...

Source: Bloomberg
...but ETH underperformed BTC, reversing yesterday's outperformance...

Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices limped higher off their 200DMA but remain near six-week lows...

Source: Bloomberg
It's different this time...

Source: Bloomberg
Right?