...as Kurt said correctly, the market has not yet imputed a...

...as Kurt said correctly, the market has not yet imputed a recession. Zero.

...people have to decide very very soon, is the soft landing outcome still alive?

...Pre-emptive action can avert an outcome when the market realises it is wrong.


Change in Full-Time work is negative.

It’s a simple rule, when negative we get a recession.

Yes the Fed is late. Yes the eco growth measured by GDP is a mirage caused by a 7% deficit.

I know there are rules and laws that some folks have created.

No false positives

https://x.com/DrJStrategy/status/1816084826115453257