...as Kurt said correctly, the market has not yet imputed a recession. Zero.
...people have to decide very very soon, is the soft landing outcome still alive?
...Pre-emptive action can avert an outcome when the market realises it is wrong.
Change in Full-Time work is negative.
It’s a simple rule, when negative we get a recession.
Yes the Fed is late. Yes the eco growth measured by GDP is a mirage caused by a 7% deficit.
I know there are rules and laws that some folks have created.
No false positives
https://x.com/DrJStrategy/status/1816084826115453257
...as Kurt said correctly, the market has not yet imputed a...
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