...but in periods of adversity, it is AUD Gold that provided the safe haven, not Gold initially, because AUD's decline provided the cushion to offset Gold's modest (relative to equities) fall
* Covid crash 2020
1Mar 20-16 Mar 20
USD Gold fell from $1674 to $1499, -10.45%
AUD Gold gained from $2520 to $2581, +2.4%
* GFC 2008 gold downdraft period
Feb 08 - Oct08
USD Gold fell from $973 to $724, -25.59%
AUD Gold gained from $1045 to $1086, +3.93%
* Gold bear market of 2012-15
Sep12012- Dec2015
USD Gold fell from $1772 to $1060. -40%
AUD Gold fell from $1707 to $1454. -14.82%
* Post covid high correction
Aug2020-Mar2021
USD Gold fell from $2035 to $1703, -16.3%
AUD Gold fell from $2843 to $2215, -22%
AUD Gold rose 77.62% over 5 years since 22 July 2019-26 July 2024 (15.52% pa)
USD Gold rose 65.65% ocer 5 years since 29 July 2019-26 July 2024 ( 13.13% pa)
AUD Gold rose 338.90% over 18 years since July 2006-26 July 2024 (18 years)(18.83% pa)
USD Gold rose 374.93% over 18 years since July 2006-26 July 2024 (20.83% pa)
What did XJO do from July 2006-26 July 2024? 58.86%, just 3.27% pa !!
Over the same time period of 18 years, CBA performed 298%( excl dividends), so AUD Gold stacks up to our best stock.
BHP only did 87.95%.
5 year view
XAUAUD Charts and Quotes — TradingView
XAUUSD Chart — Gold Spot US Dollar Price — TradingView
So IMO, we're better off being in AUD Gold over the long term than being in Australian equities.
1. AUD Gold proved to be resilient and could even advance during periods of adversity due to cushion from AUD decline
2. Physical Gold is the go to asset class during periods of adversity, and can perform remarkably in the aftermath of the crisis
My strategy would be to accumulate (physical/digital) Gold on weakness, stay in cash position (now) to buy into (physical/digital/gold stocks) Gold when it declines along with equities during the coming crash.
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