Should add the bull case for AUD; basically the same in the...

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DmitriMA

3,639 Posts.

233

02/08/24

12:23

Post #: 75043591
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Originally posted by DmitriMA: ↑

Alrighty, here we go.

First off, USD / JPY monthly chart, holding above 20 EMA...

And weekly chart, recently fallen under 20 EMA...

Clearly an uptrend channel, which has pulled right back to the bottom with precision.
A solid bounce here continues the bull case.
A failure of the channel brings 20 MONTH EMA into play as potential secondary support, along with prior horizontal resistance/support ~145.
A failure of all that suggests downside target ~137.

Prior to this, chart had broken out of a 30 year downtrend, and the recent high ~160 was a resistance level back then.
Overall, I'd say this is a strongly bullish chart which I would buy on a bounce.

* * * * * * * * *

AUD / USD

Downtrend channel, with some false/failed breakouts.
A potential Inverse H&S setup was destroyed 2 years ago.

Bear Pennant setup here;
I've drawn the largest version, you could use a smaller version starting from the next peak down.
Failure targets for the Pennants line up pretty well with the 100% and 78.6% retrace levels. So around 60 and 55.

This has been downtrending for 13 years, but can definitely flip-flop over time.
I certainly wouldn't buy it, but I'd also think twice about shorting it.

* * * * * *

How's all that sit with your views?

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Should add the bull case for AUD; basically the same in the opposite direction.
i.e. if it breaks to the upside and escapes the channel then 70 - 75 target.
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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