Nice work Dmitri thanks. Obviously both have been moving in...

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1ronnie

22,960 Posts.

2082

02/08/24

12:30

Post #: 75043740
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Originally posted by DmitriMA ↑

Alrighty, here we go.

First off, USD / JPY monthly chart, holding above 20 EMA...

And weekly chart, recently fallen under 20 EMA...

Clearly an uptrend channel, which has pulled right back to the bottom with precision.
A solid bounce here continues the bull case.
A failure of the channel brings 20 MONTH EMA into play as potential secondary support, along with prior horizontal resistance/support ~145.
A failure of all that suggests downside target ~137.

Prior to this, chart had broken out of a 30 year downtrend, and the recent high ~160 was a resistance level back then.
Overall, I'd say this is a strongly bullish chart which I would buy on a bounce.

* * * * * * * * *

AUD / USD

Downtrend channel, with some false/failed breakouts.
A potential Inverse H&S setup was destroyed 2 years ago.

Bear Pennant setup here;
I've drawn the largest version, you could use a smaller version starting from the next peak down.
Failure targets for the Pennants line up pretty well with the 100% and 78.6% retrace levels. So around 60 and 55.

This has been downtrending for 13 years, but can definitely flip-flop over time.
I certainly wouldn't buy it, but I'd also think twice about shorting it.

* * * * * *

How's all that sit with your views?

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Nice work Dmitri thanks.

Obviously both have been moving in quite an alarming rate, AUD sharp drops have always been harbinger of more trouble, while Yen rise portends a concerning reversal of the Yen carry trade.

Watch this space. A breach of 64.5c would be ominous while Yen rising to 145Y against the greenback also a key level to watch.

Thanks again.
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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