This article in the AFR just now is very interesting and first...

This article in the AFR just now is very interesting and first time I have seen a central bank make such statements - The US deficit 23/24 is estimated to be $US1.9 Tr or about 7% of GDP and could even be higher. If the US has a hard landing watch that deficit grow a lot to between $US 3 tr to $US4 tr or a deficit of 10% to 15% pa and a hard landing would see such high deficits for a few years - over that few years the cumulative deficit could even be $US10tr.

The chance of a hard landing in the US has increased substantially and IMO is quite a strong possibility.

If there is another global financial crisis QE is going to be very difficult as it will inflame inflation and there will be even less demand for US bonds where demand is already poor.