A few more charts adds weight to @1ronnie views. These charts are a few months old from Crescat Capital.
The first chart shows foreign holdings in US equities are at record highs and even a relatively small reduction will send the S&P falling a lot not to mention the $US falling. But foreign holdings may fall a lot!
The second chart shows record low financial stress. Note in particular the lows before the dotcom boom, GFC and pandemic and what happened subsequently.
The 3rd chart shows the 2 yr vs 30 yr gap vs the VIX the chart is a few months old so does not include the recent spike in VIX or the recent significant steepening of the of the 2vs 30 year yield curve. Note what happened around the dotcom boom, GFC and pandemic after major steepening moves in the 2 vs. 30-year yield spread - each one coincided with a significant increase in volatility or VIX and major falls in equity indices - this has just started to happen now but how much further will it go?
