Its Over

...I won't be buying Gold stocks at this point, prepared to miss out (if so) because any run-up may just be interrupted by the main event.
...Yet looking out 12 months, Gold stocks is a better home than lithium. Cash would be even better.

by Carl Capolingua
Key Points

Gold is one of the few commodities that has consistently delivered a strong return over the last two years as many others key to the ASX have faltered

This week, the gold price reached a record high and this has triggered a new wave of interest in ASX gold stocks

We have dug deep into our broker research archives to find the ASX’s top rated gold stocks, as well as those with the greatest upside to their consensus target price

Iron ore ❌
Copper ❌
Nickel ❌
Lithium ❌
Rare Earths ❌
Gold ✅
It’s been that sort of year for Aussie commodities investors. So much promise, but so little delivered. Unless you own gold stocks, that is. Gold has continuously performed, making new high after new high over the past couple of years. Ok, cocoa’s done pretty well also, but we don’t have any cocoa stocks on the ASX!

We do have plenty of gold stocks, though, and this is good news for Aussie investors. When it comes to gold stocks, we are indeed the lucky country, whether you’re looking for that next big thing kicking over rocks in the desert out-back of Kalgoorlie, or a stalwart producer with a great dividend yield – the ASX has you covered.

And we’ve got you covered with respect to the most highly rated gold stocks on the ASX. After scouring our extensive broker research archives, here’s the list of the 10 stocks that have the greatest number of buys, as well those that have the greatest upside to their consensus target price.
The 10 highest rated ASX gold stocks

Highest Rated ASX Gold Stocks sorted by Consensus Rating (Up/Downside vs C. Target based on closing prices 19 August, 2024) (For full size image: Click here)

The above table shows all ASX gold stocks for which we have at least two broker research notes since May 1 (to keep it current). The idea is that at least two broker ratings are required to achieve a consensus. Obviously, the greater the number of broker ratings for a particular stock, the more reliable that consensus rating is arguably going to be.
To obtain a stock’s broker consensus rating, we assigned a value of +1 to any rating better than HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT, a value of 0 for any rating equivalent to HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT, and a value of -1 to any rating worse than HOLD/NEUTRAL/MARKETWEIGHT.

Using this model, De Grey Mining (ASX: DEG), West African Resources (ASX: WAF), and Westgold Resources (ASX: WGX) are the three highest rated ASX gold stocks, each with a consensus rating of 1, meaning brokers unanimously agree they are worth buying.

Also very highly rated, with consensus ratings of 0.75-0.83, are the cohort of Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), Gold Road Resources (ASX: GOR), Red 5 (ASX: RED), Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM), Perseus Mining (ASX: PRU), and Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM). That rounds out our Top 10.
If we associate an average rating value of greater than 0.5 with a consensus BUY, an average rating value between 0.5 and -0.5 with a consensus HOLD, and an average rating value less than -0.5 with a consensus SELL, then all but Emerald Resources (ASX: EMR), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), Regis Resources (ASX: RRL), and Resolute Mining (ASX: RSG) would receive a BUY rating.
The 10 ASX gold stocks with the greatest upside

Highest Rated ASX Gold Stocks sorted by Consensus Target Upside (Up/Downside vs C. Target based on closing prices 19 August, 2024) (For full size image: Click here)

This table shows the major ASX Gold stocks sorted by most upside to their respective broker consensus target prices. In each case the average broker target price for each stock has been used. The Top 10 here range from Resolute Mining (ASX: RSG) which took out top position with an impressive 69.7% consensus target price upside, to Genesis Minerals’ (ASX: GMD) commendable 15.6%.

This table should be used in conjunction with the first table, ideally a stock that is both highly rated and possesses a large upside to its target is the most favourable. Using this metric, one could argue that the cohort of WAF, DEG, BGL, and RED offer the best combination of consensus rating and consensus target price upside – each at 0.83 or greater with at least 39% upside respectively. I suggest PRU (0.80 and +20.2%) and WGX (1.0 and +14.2%) also deserve special mentions.

Keep in mind when using these tables, brokers are constantly assessing the businesses of each stock, and therefore are regularly updating their ratings and price targets.