The 2 vs. 10-year spread is about to un-invert. The yield curve...

The 2 vs. 10-year spread is about to un-invert. The yield curve is sending a clear message about the potential direction of the economy in the near future, while markets continue to stubbornly ignore these signs. The reality is: Rate cuts late in the cycle have never ended well in history.
https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/1826329545688903987

OUCH! US payrolls marked down by 818,000 for the 12 months through March — or around 68,000 less each month –, most since 2009. Before the report, the BLS’s initial payrolls figures indicated employers added 2.9mln total jobs in the period, or an avg of 242k per month. Now the monthly pace is more likely to be ~174k, still a healthy rate of hiring but a moderation from post-pandemic peak.
https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1826274011866607899

What do you think is about to happen to construction employment?
https://x.com/PeterBerezinBCA/status/1826315641185275936

The S&P 500 is inside the last breakdown gap, but vol is bid. Setting up the mother of all bull traps.
https://x.com/SuburbanDrone/status/1826327810929000788

...stale bulls have a short window to sell into strength, but they're likely to average up/