Its Over, page-23383

In December 2008, the NBER declared that the recession started in December 2007, an entire year later.

Many people on X say, "Well, the GDP isn't negative. We can't be in a recession"

It can take 6-12 months for a recession to be confirmed. By the time its announced, it's nearly over.

Let's head to the data. The top chart = US GDP The bottom chart = Unemployment Rates The columns = Recessions The horizontal line = 0% GDP The columns = Fed Rate Cuts

Notice the order of events
1) Unemployment begins to curve up
2) Fed Cuts Rates
3) GDP goes negative (below the red line)
4) Recession. (On the chart, recessions front run the GDP collapse. In the set of events, this is last. This is due to the 6-12 month delay from the NBER.)

Step 1: Complete Step
2: Expected to begin Sept. 18th
*I'm on a 3-month chart so the dates in purple are close but not exact

https://x.com/brett_eth/status/1826736049923453292

...every time unemployment starts rising, recession follows thereafter. Fed rate cuts precedes the recession.
...this places GDP going negative and Recession likely between Dec 2024-Feb 2025