The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1829576180154150992
..it is equally important to note that US 2yr-US 10yr yield has un-inverted with difference being a mere 0.01pc (from 0.03pc a week ago).
Real spending up 0.4% in July but real disposable income up only 0.1%. The savings rate is now less than half of what it was in 2019. Good thing households still have plenty of pandemic savings and aren’t facing rising delinquency rates on consumer loans. Oh wait.
https://x.com/PeterBerezinBCA/status/1829502907898618215
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