Its Over, page-23561

For interest, here is a snapshot of my bull versus bear muti factor model summary. It is made up of a wide range of hard data from multiple perspectives - economic, technical, surveys, contrarian principles etc. and subjective factors e.g. (judgement on levels of FOMO) that generally lead or closely follow major market moves since pre GFC. Pre April 2024 was constructed in retrospect with fewer data points. Since then it has been built live weekly as data comes in.

At the very least it shows a significant shift in the economy and market dynamics / sentiment occurred mid July.

Cumulative bull factors are Grey. Bear are Orange

The current recession score component (combining for and against a recession) within the data set is still lower than in early 2022 or in late 2007 but the scoring trends from May/June 2024 are steadily moving towards recession levels. It is not business as usual. The market can still go up in this situation as per late 2007 and late 2021. It can even roller coaster as per 2022 and recover. The overall cumulative score today are slightly worse than in 2018 which recovered from a decline into a surge in 2019 but 2018 had a much lower recession likelihood score.

Crisis signals that precipitate a major bear market are still not there but they can appear overnight.

Conditions for a blow off top were there for much of 2024 but events (e.g. geo politics and Japan carry trade) kept pouring cold water on the market each time it seemed about to take off so that window of opportunity for a last surge higher "melt up" some predicted may be past. Global liquidity is on an upswing and The Dems may try to use the PPT to paint the tape into the election which can still override negative factors.

But it is time to be wary and as the chart shows there are far better set ups over time for big gains with good certainty than right now.