....this is a clear chart that shows the risk to equities when we have an inverted yield curve followed by a bull steepening
....when the 10yr yield starts to diverge from the 2yr yield to the upside further from here, we get stronger confirmation but by then, equities would probably have had experienced more notable declines.
....history stacks against no recession, but we still have sceptics who do not believe it. I remembered that when we had the inverted yield curve in July 2019, the market initially reacted negatively but soon shrugged it off. We only just needed a negative catalyst to spark the event - then came the pandemic in 2020.
...the longest yield curve inversion in modern history is unlikely to materialise in Nothing.
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"Bull-steepening" yield curve regime Great chart from Stifel!
Bull-steepening due to an economic downturn = weak stock market performance. We hedge our portfolio during stock market downtrends and use "stage analysis" to cash out
