...I think on this occasion, people (who have been sceptical and critical of Goldman and the big research houses) will want to believe and hope that Goldman is right.
.... I highlighted in Bold the two assertions- private sector healthy??? Private sector has been laying off staff, if it wasn't for Govt jobs and spending, unemployment would have been a lot worse. Central bank buffer refers to the Fed put- but that typically comes as a rescue after the event, which means a >20% correction can occur first.
....what no Goldman can predict is unintended consequences that central banks can only react, anticipate but not pre-empt- examples like the UK gilt crisis that almost took the UK down into a full blown financial crisis, because confidence got shaken over Liz Truss fiscal policies, or the SVB and regional bank crisis exacerbated by bank runs. Such events can happen no one can predict - and if central banks don't act decisively enough, it can easily morph into a systemic event. Add an already fragile economy, banking system and markets, they are the perfect storm for Margin Call 2.0.
GOLDMAN SACHS STRATEGISTS SAY THE U.S. STOCK MARKET IS UNLIKELY TO FALL INTO A BEAR MARKET
Goldman Sachs Group Strategists Pointed Out That The U.S. Stock Market Is Unlikely To Fall By 20% Or More, And The Risk Of A Recession Remains Low Given The Expectation Of The Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts. The Team Led By Christian Mueller-Glissmann Said That Although The U.S. Stock Market May Fall By The End Of The Year Under The Drag Of High Valuations, Mixed Growth Prospects And Policy Uncertainty, The Probability Of Falling Directly Into A Bear Market Is Low Because The Economy Is Also Partially Supported By A "healthy Private Sector."
In Addition, Historical Analysis By Strategists Shows That The Frequency Of The S&P 500 Index Falling By More Than 20% Has Decreased Since The 1990s, Due To The Lengthening Of The Business Cycle, Reduced Macroeconomic Volatility And The "buffer" Role Of The Central Bank. They Said In A Report On September 9 That They Remain Tactically Neutral In Asset Allocation, But Have A "mildly Pro-risk" Attitude In The 12-month Span
