...as you can see, since 2022, Wall St had been prematurely over-bullish on the Fed pivot; now market is expecting 100 bps in 2024 - that would be very unlikely unless the Fed delivers 50bps in Sept and 25bps for Nov and Dec as there is no FOMC in Oct. I think there is prospect that we may just get 50bps - 25bps in Sept and another 25bps in Dec.
At the start of the year, market expectations were that the Fed would have already cut 100 bps by now.
