...About means soon but not yet. ...Well, didn't I tell you my...

...About means soon but not yet.

...Well, didn't I tell you my warnings have always been several months ahead.

...So enjoy this 'mini-bull' (if you can call it that) while it lasts.

...And if you are one of those who believe that we can't truly believe the more positive US economic data coming out, then all the more reason you should think that we're on the path to a recession, not a soft landing.

...do the bankers know what we don't know?

----------

History tells us it’s about to get ugly

More inversion days = Deeper drawdown

The recent inversion lasted over 700 days This ONLY happened in 1929

https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1834657595552092497

2/ The recent inversion reached a duration not seen since 1929 This signal has accurately predicted every recession And it also reflects the state of the labor market

https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1834657598538412471

3/ A flattening yield curve is associated with:
- Strengthening labor market
- Declining initial jobless claims
https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1834657601898136043


4/ Conversely, after yield curve inversions, the curve steepens
This development indicates a weakening labor market and rising jobless claims
https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1834657604855119914

5/ Recently, the yield curve was inverted for an extended period of time
Therefore, we're biased towards claims rising significantly in the coming months
https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1834657607380090900

6/ Moreover, yield curve steepening occurs very close to recessions
https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1834657610232107045

7/ For now, we’re not yet concerned until initial claims surpass the 260k level When that happens, it would indicate that the labor market is weakening rapidly And the stock market is at risk of a larger correction At that time, we'll reduce most of our long market exposure
https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1834657613180797127