....we can't be surprised that GDP could be revised down the road.
....by the time recession is called, everyone already knew we have been in one.
How do we know if we're in a recession? In the past, it took an average of 10 months for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to announce a US recession after it started. After the pandemic hit in 2020, recession dating came with a 16-month lag. During the 2008 Financial Crisis, it took a year for NBER to declare a recession. This means that the economy is almost always in a downturn way before it is officially recognized. Data is released with a lag and is subject to many revisions, as we have seen with recent labor market data. Could we already be in a recession?
