...how could the market have priced in recession when it is...

...how could the market have priced in recession when it is still at all time highs?

...beginning to price in means we can expect more downside ahead.

The market is now pricing in a 50% chance of a US recession by June 2025.

The percentage has more than doubled over the last month and is up from just 10% in July.

Furthermore, the market is pricing in a 50% probability that the Fed will cut rates by at least 200 basis points over the next 8 months.

By comparison, the Federal Reserve expects 150 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025.

This comes after a 50 basis point rate reduction on Wednesday which marked the largest surprise for markets since 2008.

The market is clearly pricing-in a recession.

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1837542541949804856