....market is now more concern over jobs than inflation, so next...

....market is now more concern over jobs than inflation, so next time of concern is Oct 4 payroll numbers. Not long now.

2007 vs 2024

Fed Unemployment Rate Projections.

2007: First rate cut: Sept 18, 2007

Unemployment rate at the time of cut: 4.7%

Fed Projections for the next 3 years:
2007: 4.7-4.8%
2008: 4.6-5%
2009: 4.6-5%
2010: 4.6-5%

Actual Peaks:
2007: 5%
2008: 7.3%
2009: 10%
2010: 9.9%

2024: First rate cut: Sept 18, 2024

Unemployment rate at the time of cut: 4.2%

Fed Projections for the next 3 years:
2024: 4.3-4.%
2025: 4.2-4.5%
2026: 4-4.4%
2027: 4-4.4%

A simple reminder for everyone that says "In 2007, they knew the economy was bad at the first rate cut".

They may have known it, but surely didn't admit to it or make projections showing it.

https://x.com/brett_eth/status/1837904561715257734