1. Stocks are rising like a "soft landing" has happened
2. Gold is rising like we are in a major economic crisis
3. Bonds are falling like the Fed is done cutting rates
4. Real estate prices are rising like rate cuts just started
5. Oil prices are falling like demand is disappearing
6. Natural gas prices are rising like demand is growing
Nothing adds up here.
This is one of the least traditional market environments of all time. We have a Fed that is calling for a "soft landing" while cutting rates at crisis levels. In fact, over 100 basis points of rate cuts are priced-in for 2024 and we are still seeing 3%+ core inflation.
Interest rate futures are literally pricing-in a recession while the Fed says they have likely avoided one. Interest rate futures are now pricing in 8 Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, the most since 2008. History says that more volatility is coming for equity markets. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1838660678879514855
The same exact trend has been seen globally. Global central banks implemented a total of 28 rate cuts in Q3 2024, the most since Q2 2020. ALL major central banks are cutting rates even as inflation risks are clearly still present and material. https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1838660985735016744
